IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	+3.6	#112
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	62.5	#327
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.5	#125

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+2.1	#108

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.3%	0.3%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.8%	0.3%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	21.3%	22.0%	10.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	2.7%	2.8%	0.3%
Average Seed	12.5	12.5	14.4

.500 or above	87.4%	88.8%	64.8%
.500 or above in Conference	84.6%	85.5%	71.8%
Conference Champion	23.0%	23.7%	10.8%
Last Place in Conference	1.4%	1.3%	3.3%

First Four	1.7%	1.8%	1.3%
First Round	20.4%	21.0%	10.4%
Second Round	5.0%	5.3%	1.2%
Sweet Sixteen	1.5%	1.5%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.4%	0.4%	0.0%
Final Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Presbyterian (Home) - 94.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.2 - 1.0	0.2 - 1.0
Quad 1b	0.5 - 1.3	0.7 - 2.3
Quad 2	1.5 - 2.2	2.1 - 4.5
Quad 3	5.0 - 3.5	7.1 - 8.1
Quad 4	12.5 - 2.3	19.6 - 10.4

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2018	319	Presbyterian	W	71-58	94%
Nov 10, 2018	307	@ Western Carolina	W	74-62	79%
Nov 13, 2018	103	Rhode Island	L	67-68	60%
Nov 18, 2018	74	@ Oklahoma St.	L	67-70	28%
Nov 22, 2018	46	LSU	L	67-73	29%
Nov 23, 2018	187	UAB	W	70-65	67%
Nov 25, 2018	101	Memphis	L	67-68	48%
Nov 28, 2018	348	South Carolina St.	W	80-61	97%
Dec 01, 2018	301	Charlotte	W	77-66	90%
Dec 15, 2018	127	@ Virginia Commonwealth	W	70-69	43%
Dec 18, 2018	284	@ Siena	W	70-60	73%
Dec 21, 2018	221	Coastal Carolina	W	71-64	80%
Dec 29, 2018	197	@ UNC Wilmington	W	76-70	58%
Jan 03, 2019	237	@ Towson	W	70-62	66%
Jan 05, 2019	176	@ James Madison	W	70-66	54%
Jan 10, 2019	280	Drexel	W	75-65	85%
Jan 12, 2019	239	Delaware	W	70-62	81%
Jan 17, 2019	70	@ Northeastern	L	66-70	27%
Jan 19, 2019	156	@ Hofstra	W	73-70	50%
Jan 24, 2019	231	Elon	W	72-64	82%
Jan 26, 2019	164	William & Mary	W	75-71	70%
Jan 31, 2019	176	James Madison	W	70-66	73%
Feb 02, 2019	237	Towson	W	70-62	82%
Feb 07, 2019	239	@ Delaware	W	70-62	65%
Feb 09, 2019	280	@ Drexel	W	75-65	72%
Feb 14, 2019	156	Hofstra	W	73-70	69%
Feb 16, 2019	70	Northeastern	L	66-70	46%
Feb 21, 2019	164	@ William & Mary	W	75-71	52%
Feb 23, 2019	231	@ Elon	W	72-64	64%
Mar 02, 2019	197	UNC Wilmington	W	76-70	76%
Projected Record						19.6 - 10.4	11.7 - 6.3

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.5	2.6	4.3	6.1	5.4	3.1	0.9		23.0	1st
2nd											0.2	1.8	4.8	7.4	5.9	3.0	0.6				23.8	2nd
3rd										0.2	2.1	5.7	5.9	2.5	0.5	0.0					17.0	3rd
4th									0.3	2.1	4.7	3.5	1.3	0.1							12.0	4th
5th								0.1	1.7	3.6	2.4	0.6	0.0								8.4	5th
6th						0.0	0.1	1.3	2.7	1.9	0.4	0.0									6.5	6th
7th					0.0	0.1	0.9	1.9	1.3	0.3											4.5	7th
8th					0.2	0.6	1.1	0.6	0.1	0.0											2.6	8th
9th			0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	0.4	0.1													1.5	9th
10th	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1														0.7	10th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	1.5	2.6	4.1	6.0	8.0	9.9	11.7	12.5	12.6	10.7	9.1	6.0	3.1	0.9			Total

Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.9		0.9
17-1	100.0%	3.1		3.0	0.1
16-2	89.7%	5.4		4.6	0.8	0.0
15-3	66.6%	6.1		4.2	1.7	0.1
14-4	40.4%	4.3		2.1	1.9	0.4	0.0
13-5	20.2%	2.6		0.8	1.0	0.6	0.1
12-6	4.2%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.3%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	23.0%	23.0		15.7	5.8	1.3	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.9%		90.5%	63.2%	27.3%	7.1		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.1		74.2%
17-1	3.1%		74.6%	57.7%	16.9%	10.0		0.0		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0		0.8		40.0%
16-2	6.0%		55.3%	43.8%	11.5%	11.5					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.8	1.0	0.6	0.2	0.0		2.7		20.4%
15-3	9.1%		44.6%	39.2%	5.4%	12.3								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.8	1.3	1.1	0.4	0.2	0.0	5.1		8.9%
14-4	10.7%		29.0%	27.5%	1.5%	13.0										0.0	0.0	0.2	0.9	0.9	0.8	0.3	0.0	7.6		2.0%
13-5	12.6%		22.5%	22.2%	0.3%	13.7												0.1	0.3	0.9	1.0	0.5	0.1	9.8		0.3%
12-6	12.5%		14.5%	14.5%		14.2												0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	0.5	0.2	10.7
11-7	11.7%		12.4%	12.4%		14.6													0.0	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.3	10.2
10-8	9.9%		8.5%	8.5%		14.9													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	9.1
9-9	8.0%		4.7%	4.7%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	7.7
8-10	6.0%		3.9%	3.9%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	5.8
7-11	4.1%		2.1%	2.1%		16.0																0.0	0.1	4.0
6-12	2.6%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.0	2.6
5-13	1.5%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.0	1.5
4-14	0.7%																							0.7
3-15	0.3%																							0.3
2-16	0.1%																							0.1
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		21.3%	19.2%	2.2%	12.5		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.8	2.5	4.2	4.1	3.9	2.7	1.4	78.7		2.7%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	4.4		1.9	17.1	28.9	38.9	13.3